Alabama Cotton Picksack

• Drought and Hurricane Damage in South Alabama....................................................D. Monks, D. Delaney
• Has Cotton Production Changed in North Alabama?..................................................C. Burmester
• Insects Update: What We Learned ...................................................................................R. Smith
• Cotton Discussion Group on the Internet .......................................................................W. Goodman
• 1999 Cotton Calendar..........................................................................................................D. Monks, D. Delaney
   

The 1998 cotton season started out hot and dry in southeast Alabama and continued until July. In Geneva county, according to Mary Baltikauski, county agent, rainfall during April, May, and June is normally around 14 to 16 inches total. During the same period this year, Geneva county received slightly more than 2 inches total. Coupled with the higher than normal heat unit accumulation (Tables 1, 2, and 3), conditions drove the crop to early cutout. Much of the cotton in the "Wiregrass" counties was 1 to 1.5 feet tall and cutout by the end of June. July brought some relief but August was again dry. This resulted in 2 to 3 crops maturing on the same plant.

Harvest was further complicated by the late rainfall from Hurricane Georges. Mobile and Baldwin counties sustained complete crop destruction from the wind and rain that lasted for several hours. The damage in Escambia, Monroe, Covington, and adjoining counties was also severe. The losses in the heaviest hit counties were the result of locks blown off the plant, plant lodging, rotten burs, and reduced quality. In some areas, tarps were blown off modules, making the already harvested cotton a total loss.

Central Alabama counties fared better overall than southern areas. While dry conditions persisted throughout the summer, the devastation from Hurricane Georges was not as great overall. Yields ranged from 1 to 1.5 bales/acre with 2+ bales/acre reported in isolated incidences.

Several questions are out there for everyone's consideration before the 1999 growing season rolls around again. Will Roundup Ready cotton continue to play a large role in south Alabama? Will Bt cotton continue to dominate the varieties planted? Are the problems that have been experienced with some Roundup Ready varieties in other states soon to be ours to deal with? How can we better manage the crop to become (as Bob Goodman says) a "lowest cost producer"? What part, if any, will ultra narrow row cotton play 2, 5, or 10 years down the road? These are questions that we should consider after this year's crop is behind us.
 
 
 
 

A preliminary seed cotton yield report (one year only without quality, turnout, etc.) is available through your local county Extension System offices and through the Internet at:  www.aces.edu/department/cotton/index.html.  The final, official report will be available from the Experiment Station System later in January, 1999.
 
 

In comparison to other areas, 1998 appears to be a good year for cotton production in North Alabama. On the Tennessee Valley Substation we will average more than 750 lb/A on our dry land cotton this season. North Alabama, as a whole, should average well over 700 lb/A. When you look at the rainfall for the growing season (Table 4) you wonder how this is possible. What have we done to produce such yields in a hot dry year?
 
 
 

Two things in the weather data stand out. Without the July rainfall, we would have been in deep trouble. Also, the DD60's are the highest I have see for this area. If we had received a couple more rains in August and September there is no telling how much more we could have made.

This leads me to a point that has been evident the last few years in Northern Alabama. We started planting some longer season cotton varieties in 1996, essentially because that is all that was available containing the Bt gene. With the boll weevil out of the picture we are now making more late season bolls than we ever thought possible. Earliness is still important due to our shorter growing season, but we must plant part of the crop to these longer season varieties to protect ourselves from early season drought and premature cut-out. This was quite evident in 1998.

Of course, cotton insecticide spraying is down due to over 80% of the crop being planted to Bt varieties. Cotton scouting has become more important mainly because plant bug and bollworm control timing has become more critical. Many farmers are hesitant to spray Bt cotton due to the technology fee they are paying, however, timely sprays when plant bug and bollworm levels reach damaging levels is paying big returns. We have seen over 100 lb/A lint increases with one timely insecticide spray on Bt cotton at the Tennessee Valley Substation.

We planted about 10,000 acres of ultra-narrow cotton in North Alabama in 1998. Generally, yields were equal or slightly better than surrounding conventional cotton fields. If mills will accept this cotton with little discount, I feel this production has a good fit especially on our more marginal soils. Remember that 1998 was perhaps the best weather we will ever have for stripper harvest. Let's not expand too fast.

In closing, cotton production in North Alabama appears on the upswing. However, increasing production costs and low prices keep us from being overly optimistic.
 

As is often the case, both insect and weather conditions varied somewhat from region to region within the state in 1998. After a wet winter, conditions became very dry during May and June. Where stands were obtained, growth was stunted and thrips damage was very heavy. No at-planting treatment gave acceptable control and many fields required foliar sprays for thrips. Due to the above average temperatures, both cotton maturity, budworm and fall armyworm populations advanced faster than normal. Budworms occurred in late May and FAW's in late June in the Gulf Coast area. Localized populations of budworms were heavy and pyrethroids gave ineffective control. Bollworms peaked in mid to late July and a higher percentage of Bollgard varieties were oversprayed than either of the previous two years. Pyrethroids gave excellent control of bollworms statewide. FAW's occurred early and eventually spread statewide with three generations (June to September) occurring in south Alabama.

Plant bugs were below economic levels over most of the state due to the impact of the extreme spring drought on wild host plants. Stink bugs appeared in cotton early (June) but were maintained below damaging levels throughout most of the season due to sprays targeted toward bollworms, budworms or FAW's. Beet armyworms were present at detectable levels in many fields throughout the season. However, not a single field statewide had economic levels for the third consecutive year. Insecticide applications ranged from two or three up to six or eight and more were needed on many fields of conventional varieties. Growers were hesitant to invest in more insect control, due to the poor outlook for yields resulting from the drought. Approximately 60% of the Alabama acreage was planted to Bollgard varieties and this will likely increase in 1999. Other conditions being equal, Bollgard out-yielded conventional varieties due to the lack of timely applications for "worm" control.

Looking ahead to 1999 here are some points to remember. Newer "worm" insecticides will have to be used more precisely and applications targeted when caterpillars are small. Pyrethroids remain the most effective and economical choice of insecticide when bollworms and not budworms are the target pest. It is more important than ever to distinguish between the two "worm" species. Field moth sightings are not a good indicator of the species mix in the field. Fall armyworms may change the location they occur on the plant and feeding habits during the season. More larvae will be associated with blooms in July but with bolls in August. Pyrethroids gave good suppression of fall armyworms if applied when the caterpillars are small. Newer chemistry, recently labeled or under development (Tracer, Steward, Strategy, Pirate), may show improved activity on armyworms.

Pyrethroids give adequate suppression of stink bugs. However, the older phosphate insecticides such as methyl parathion, Penncap M and Bidrin, plus new products like Regent, gave excellent control of stink bugs.

Growers should consider a "cleanup" of sub-economic levels of multiple pests such as plant bugs, bollworms, fall armyworms and stink bugs after mid season. Preserving beneficials at all costs is costing some growers the opportunity for increased yields with minimum inputs. The fear of flaring beet armyworms should no longer be driving the decision making process.
 

Some of you already participate in a cotton discussion group over the Internet. It has been an interesting, educational, and useful experience for me, as well as most of the participants.

Anyone can join, farmers are especially welcome. You don't have to write in anything, you can just "listen" if you want to, which is what I usually do. During the year topics vary. In the spring, variety selection is a popular topic. Later on, weed and insect control is a common one. Anything and everything to do with cotton, and then some. There was a recent heated exchange between some delta folks and some guys in Texas over just what you make barbecue from and where can you get the best of it.

We have been having a discussion on the recent low prices and what to do about it lately that I have found very interesting. I have decided to share a letter written by a farmer and cotton trader from Texas. I know we don't gamble or play craps in Alabama, but the principle applies to cotton farming. I hope you enjoy it.

First, take a good look at Table 5 shown below. What is all this and what does it have to do with cotton? The number's 6, 7, 8, roll more times than all the others. Same in the cotton market 60's, 70's, 80's. 7's the most in craps and 70's in cotton. The probability distribution in craps is almost identical to cotton. So what you do is bet craps on 6, 7, 8, except when the table is hot. Conversely, most cotton is sold when the futures market is in the 60's and 70's except when the market is hot. Now how do I take advantage of all this knowledge? Well, when the craps table is rolling a lot of numbers other than 7 it's hot, otherwise it's not. If I keep betting that the table is going to be hot and it's not, I go broke.

Craps Tables: will roll 10% hot, normal 80% and cold 10% (based statistical evidence of 10,000 rolls). You want to be there when it's hot. To do that, you have to be patient and wait or adopt safe hedge playing strategies.

Cotton: if the markets at or near 80 it's high and hot, 70 it's normal, 60's is low or cold based on the past 25 years prices and time spent there). So if cotton is near 80 or hot, I have got to get in on this action because statistical evidence supports the fact that 80 i.e. the hot market won't last long.

Now for those who are shooting for 9, 10, yo,leven (11) and boxcars (12) every roll of the dice, or in the case of cotton 90 or 1.00 you'd better have a lot of patience and very deep pockets because neither of these, craps or cotton, exhibit many rolls of 9 through 12, or 90 cents and a 1.00.

This is my thesis on how to market cotton and shoot craps. Odds on dice rolls and prices based on experience and statistics. I know what you're thinking already - that I'm full of craps.
 
 

*The telephone number at the National Cotton Council office in Memphis, TN is 901-274-9030. An alternative contact person for the Farm Smart Conferences is the local Monsanto representative. The telephone number for the SGA (Southern Cotton Ginners Association) is: 901-947-3104.

You can access cotton and other row crop information through our website at:
http://www.aces.edu/department/cotton/index.html

As always, if we can be of service at the Alabama Cooperative Extension System, please do not hesitate to call or visit your local county Extension office.
 

Alabama Cotton Picksack Newsletter Reference: PSK-12-98; D. Monks and C. Burmester, Editors

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