David South is not a gambling man by nature, but when he sees a sure bet, he’ll put his money up without hesitation. South has proven that tendency not only in his research on forest regeneration systems, but also through his predictions about the future of the forest industry.

South is a native of North Carolina who moved in his youth among several locales in the state from Greensboro and Chapel Hill to Boone and Mount Gilead, with most of his teen years in Wilmington. He began college at North Carolina State University (NCSU) as a computer science major, but soon decided that he wanted a career that allowed him to work outside. South changed his major to wildlife biology and forestry and earned two bachelor’s degrees from NCSU in 1973. He then began graduate school at NCSU in forestry, working on a hardwood nursery project. On one hot summer day when South was hand-weeding plots for this project, he came to the conclusion that “there has to be a better way.”

After graduating with his master’s from NCSU, South came to Auburn in 1975 where he was hired as a research associate with AU’s Department of Forestry (now known as the School of Forestry). His work at Auburn concentrated on quality seedling production in southern forest nurseries, and South had the opportunity to see if his earlier speculation about “a better way” was an astute assumption. For the next several years South was at the forefront of research on new weed control methods for pine nurseries, and his efforts have paid off for the forest industry.

While at Auburn, South earned the Ph.D. in forestry, graduating in 1983. That same year he was promoted to assistant professor. From 1982 to 1988, South served as director of the AU Southern Forest Nursery Management Cooperative, a regional forest cooperative that concentrates on production of high quality pine seedlings for the southern forest industry. The result has been a significant reduction in weed problems faced by nursery managers. In fact, South and his fellow researchers have found ways to reduce the time needed for weeding from about 200 hours per acre to 10 hours or less per acre.

In 1988, South was promoted to associate professor and two years later he was awarded the Experiment Station Director’s Research Award. About this time he began to concentrate his research on improving the survival and growth of pine seedlings once they are transplanted. His story in this issue of Highlights (“Survival of the Fittest: Pine Seedling Survival Increased by Machine Planting Large Seedlings”) provides information on the latest results of that research.

South was promoted to full professor in 1993 and that same year spent 10 months as a Fulbright Scholar in South Africa. During his tenure at Auburn, South also has traveled as a visiting scientist to numerous countries, including Canada, Scotland, Sweden, New Zealand, and India. Those travels exposed him to new ideas for forest regeneration. He cites New Zealand’s approach as a prime example of the advantages of planting larger seedlings.

“In New Zealand, where pine sawlogs are the objective, about 400 bare-root trees per acre are planted, in part, because their regeneration system is very reliable,” said South. “Here, we plant about 665 trees per acre hoping to get a pulpwood stand of some 500 trees per acre.” South explained that this excessive planting is done in the Southeast, in part, to compensate for years when the unfavorable rainfall contributes to the high mortality rates of newly-planted small seedlings. But he contends it is an inefficient approach for landowners who want to grow sawtimber. He firmly believes that machine-planting fewer, larger seedlings is the key to more efficient plantation establishment. South thinks that landowners using this method will increase value over the long run and in some cases might reduce costs in the short run.

Another long-run wager was a particularly interesting event in South’s life just a few years ago. In 1996 South made a bet with the late Julian Simon, a futurist who professed that the price of any commodity, even nonrenewable ones, will decrease over time. Simon had visited Auburn as part of the School of Forestry’s Weaver Lecture Series and he was known for publicly challenging other environmentalists and venturesome types to bet against his theory. South called Simon’s hand, betting Simon that the price of saw timber in Alabama would increase, while Simon bet it would decrease. In March of 1997, Simon withdrew from the bet, sending South a check for $1,000 to pay off his debt. Since the bet was made, the price of saw timber in south Alabama has increased by about 60%.

Simon died suddenly in 1998, but South said the spirit of his wager remains, and South is willing to make yet another bet with anyone who follows Simon’s theory of declining prices. “Now, I’m a little cocky,” South admitted. “This time I will go against historical trends and bet on the price of crude oil.” South says that wood from plantations is a renewable energy source but crude oil is not.

South’s proposed bet is that, on January 3, 2010, the uninflated price of a barrel of Texas oil will be greater than $12. The loser will pay the winner $1,000 on January 15, 2010. So far, South hasn’t found anyone willing to ante up, even after his challenge was published in the March 27, 1999, issue of The Economist magazine.

But South is not sitting around waiting for a taker, he’s busy trying to take more of the gamble out of forest regeneration. South continues to look at new alternatives for control of specific problem weeds, such as nutsedge and sicklepod, in nurseries. These two plant pests still plague the forest seedling industry, and the industry’s main line of control (the soil fumigant methyl bromide) will be unavailable to growers by the mid 2000s. South and others in the Southern Forest Nursery Cooperative are looking for new alternatives to this chemical, and have already helped facilitate the registration of several new chemicals for this purpose. In addition, South will continue challenging the region’s foresters and landowners to take a gamble on planting a fewer number of larger seedlings instead of a lot of small seedlings.